UK - Future outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can be controlled effectively and quickly with vaccinations - saving millions of pounds and hundreds of thousands of livestock - according to research by the University of Warwick.Dr Michael Tildesley and Naomi Bradbury from the School of Life Sciences have discovered that a key issue for successfully containing and eradicating a FMD outbreak is to establish how many animals can be vaccinated per day, and tailor controls accordingly.Using a mathematical model of the UK farming landscape, Dr Tildesley and colleagues simulated numerous scenarios of infection - to varying levels of severity and speed - calculating the most effective and efficient approaches to stave the spread of disease.Many dangerous uncertainties exist when dealing with epidemics like FMD, such as: the efficacy of vaccinations, the time it takes for livestock to become immune after receiving vaccines, and the number of vaccine doses available. Uncertainty leads to huge potential losses of both money and livestock.
根据英国华威大学的研究显示，未来的口蹄疫疫情可以通过疫苗接种而被迅速和有效的控制，从而节省上百万英镑，挽救成百上千的牲畜。生命科学学院的娜奥米·布拉德伯里与迈克尔·蒂尔兹利博士已经发现了一个可以成功遏制和根除口蹄疫疫情的关键问题，即建立一套统计每天接种疫苗动物数量的机制，并相应的对疫苗接种做出调整控制。蒂尔兹利博士和他的同事通过使用英国农业景观的数学模型，按照不同的疫情严重程度和感染速度，对许多感染状况进行了仿真，计算出了避免疾病传播的最有效和最高效的方法。在处理像口蹄疫这样的传染病时，存在着许多危险的不确定性，比如：疫苗药效、牲畜在接种疫苗后对疾病免疫的耗费时间，可用的疫苗药剂数量。不确定性会导致金钱和牲畜受到巨额的潜在损失。
